I have resigned myself to not questioning Kenny Williams’ moves anymore. He has proven me wrong many times and won us a World Series. So this isn’t a post saying this move was bad, just pointing out a few facts, both good and bad:

What we gave up

Aaron Poreda was the key piece. The 22 year old lefty was likely a future starter on this team. Of course, he is a left (so are Danks and Buehrle) and three lefties is a lot. Plus he was no sure thing. Still, my assumption was he was the most promising of the four guys. Clayton Richard looked amazing his last two times out but had struggled otherwise. He’s 25 and even if he becomes a middle of the road starter, he was worth the risk to trade. More importantly though, we just traded away our 5th starter (Peavy is out for a month still, more on that in a minute) and our 2nd lefty reliever. Those are two pieces this team will need over the next month to compete.

Peavy

Jake Peavy is a good pitcher. In 8 seasons and over 200 starts his ERA has been about 19% better than the average pitcher after you adjust for a few things. That is the 16th best among active pitchers and the 4th best amongst guys nder 30 (behing Zambrano, Haren and Sabathia). He is also 8th in WHIP and K/9 among active pitchers. So there is no doubt this guy is good. But one major alarming factor are his home/road splits (h/t to Charles for reminding me about this). In his career Peavy’s ERA is a full run higher on the road versus at home. To put that into perspective, Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana and Dan Haren all (coincindetally) have a 0.42 run higher on the road versus at home. CC Sabathia’s is 0.02, Josh Beckett’s is lower on the road. This is significant, especially when you consider that Petco is an extreme pitchers park and The Cell is a launching pad. Then there is the injury concern. Peavy hasn’t pitched since June 8th with an ankle injury and won’t be back until early September it seems. If we are out of the race by then this was pointless.

Long Term

Peavy’s extension doesn’t even kick in until next year, and he is owed $52 million for those next three years. He has a team option for 2013 that is $22 million. No word yet if the Sox had to agree to pick that up for him to waive his no trade clause. This means the Sox just increased their payroll by at least $15M per year for the next 3 years. With Dye and Thome coming off the books this summer it was likely the Sox needed a bat. It’s unlikely now that will be an expensive bat. This likely puts even more pressure on Beckham, Quentin, Ramirez and Getz/Nix/Fields to step up.

How to measure success

Short term success is the next month. Watch every start that would have belonged to Clayton Richard from now until and Peavy is healthy and ask yourself if he would have done better. Is the bullpen affected the rest of the year without Poreda. Long term success keys on two things: can Peavy stay healthy and can he pitch away from the run-stifling confines of Petco? It doesn’t matter how good the guys they traded away up end being long term. Unless Poreda is the next Tom Glavine, as long as Peavy pitches well it might not matter. Of course, if the Sox win a World Series with Peavy, none of this matters.