I thought I would try my luck at predicting where the top 6 NBA free agents (I consider that to be the top tier) where end up.

First the guys who didn’t make the cut:

  • Yao Ming: A top guy are marketing alone, but after missing the entire season it’s unlikely anyone maxes out on him unless it’s Houston. He stays put.
  • Carlos Boozer: Injury problems, plus he is undersized. He will be a consolation prize to someone with cap room who loses out to the big names. I think he ends up in a sign and trade.
  • Paul Pierce: The last of the current “stars” on the list. Almost a lock to resign with Boston unless he wants to take a big pay cut.

1. LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers

I know it’s boring to start out with LeBron staying with his current team, but I think that’s what happens. Pretty much regardless of what happens to the Cavs I think they re-sign him. It’s questionable how long Jamison can be the #2, but Varejao and Mo Williams are solid role players.

Other Options: New York, Chicago, New Jersey. Most people think the Knicks is where he will go, but unless they get Wade or Bosh too that team is not going to be good enough for him to pick over his homestate Cavs. Chicago has Noah and Rose who are unselfish, “just want to win” guys. New Jersey has tons of cap space, Russian Mark Cuban and Jay Z.

2. Dwyane Wade – Chicago Bulls

When the Heat drafted Michael Beasley I would have bet the farm Wade would stay. But Beasley has been a train wreck. Bill Simmons’ has thrown the sign and trade out there for Amare to come to Phoenix for Beasley and others. Ultimately Wade is going to see Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah in his hometown and make the move. Unless Wade can end up somewhere with LeBron (which I don’t think is possible) it’s Chicago or…

Other Option: Miami Heat. A city everyone wants to be in that loves him. Still the possibility that Beasley and Mario Chalmers become real players. Jermaine O’Neal’s contract freeing up money for a big name.

3. Chris Bosh – New York Knicks

I think the Knicks will lose out on LeBron and pick up Bosh and Joe Johnson instead. Bosh is a 100% lock to leave Toronto. I think that he ends up in New York regardless of what happens with anyone else, either with LeBron or Johnson.

Second choice: Miami Heat. New Jersey. I think if he doesn’t end up in NYC he ends up in Miami. Either alongside Wade or replacing him as the star. I think it would be hilarious to see him and Beasley run the Heat into the ground together. New Jersey for the same reasons as LeBron.

4. Dirk Nowitski – Dallas Mavericks

Dirk has to opt out but it seems like he is at least thinking about it. I think ultimately he doesn’t want to roll the dice with all the big names out there this year. Assuming everyone else on this list opts out, Dirk may only be behind Tony Parker and Carmelo Anthony (who has to opt out next year) on the pecking order. I think it seems more likely he waits until then.

Other option. Oklahoma City. Time to get crazy! Ponder this for a second. Dirk wants to win. He is going to see how good OKC is this year in the playoffs. He is going to realize that he could go there and share the spotlight with Durant and maybe end up the 2nd option where he could dominate. With his size and shooting ability he is going to let the Thunder spread the floor to the extreme.

5. Joe Johnson – New York Knicks

I think it’s going to be hilarious watching the Knicks try to sell fans on Johnson & Bosh instead of LeBron. Johnson is going to be the consolation prize to whoever misses out on Wade and LeBron. NY seems like the most logical choice, but it could be…

Other Options: Chicago Bulls. New Jersey. If the Bulls miss out on Wade and LeBron, Johnson makes sense on some levels. I think that they need a low-post scorer more than a swingman but who knows. NJ has tons of cap room so if he can’t get a max deal anywhere else, I think that’s the selling point.

6. Amare Stoudemire – Miami Heat

Assuming Wade leaves and Bosh ends up elsewhere, I think Amare is the kind of guy they go after. They will have to show they are trying and will make a mistake here (just like they would with Bosh). Amare will ultimately end up with the highest bidder.

Other Options: New Jersey Nets or the Highest Bidder. Heres the thing, if the new Nets owner is really “Russian Mark Cuban” he isn’t dumb enough to make this move. But the Nets have tons of cap space and the new owner may want to make a splash. Amare is the most likely guy to just take the money and run. If he wanted to win he would stay in Phoenix. I think he will go where he can.